Nuclear Paradox: Fewer, More Risky
The Evolving Nuclear Landscape: Arsenals, Arms Control, and Escalating Risks in a New Era Executive Summary The global security landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, signaling the end of the post-Cold War era of nuclear arms reductions and ushering in a more perilous nuclear age. As of January 2025, the world's nuclear arsenal stands at approximately 12,241 warheads, with a concerning trend of modernization and expansion across nearly all nine nuclear-armed states. Notably, China's rapid build-up and the escalating regional dynamics in South Asia are significant drivers of this renewed arms race. Concurrently, the foundational arms control frameworks, particularly the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), are facing imminent collapse, eroding transparency and increasing the potential for unconstrained expansion and miscalculation. Compounding these challenges is the integration of emerging technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), hypersonic w...